Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 10.806598 13.255109 15.992851 19.260880 23.034886 27.235416 32.242412
2026-02-01 7.344750 10.458471 14.339511 19.444476 25.887584 33.651545 43.607285
2026-02-08 5.235672 8.455005 12.840606 19.062680 27.454011 38.158627 52.598594
2026-02-15 3.813520 6.924711 11.518674 18.480398 28.407599 41.674483 60.307120
2026-02-22 3.089976 6.210142 11.141558 19.027177 30.779398 47.060244 70.635157
2026-03-01 2.380488 5.323861 10.312730 18.728931 31.821364 50.589871 78.554758
2026-03-08 1.900024 4.704645 9.777493 18.758726 33.267673 54.690521 87.396117
2026-03-15 1.416018 3.936658 8.836456 17.973957 33.332999 56.713537 93.302643
2026-03-22 1.198233 3.656004 8.711096 18.519121 35.501017 61.937923 104.060124
2026-03-29 0.992422 3.339648 8.456116 18.786149 37.202368 66.504517 114.007164
2026-04-05 0.832047 3.082572 8.269245 19.138603 39.044824 71.352065 124.549015
2026-04-12 0.702203 2.862298 8.117058 19.525527 40.950811 76.365826 135.517651
2026-04-19 0.532660 2.477209 7.563551 19.129534 41.563897 79.518565 144.059333
2026-04-26 0.428576 2.249397 7.329393 19.353168 43.324560 84.677376 156.051589
2026-05-03 0.320357 1.947334 6.843588 18.975637 43.919747 87.889724 165.032337
2026-05-10 0.230754 1.654534 6.304924 18.395656 44.056201 90.292086 172.755673
2026-05-17 0.192328 1.555263 6.270492 18.940475 46.411160 96.636735 187.194761
2026-05-24 0.141837 1.356812 5.898693 18.643305 47.050891 99.970287 196.713034
2026-05-31 0.108844 1.220363 5.677656 18.672992 48.344236 104.513695 208.415524
2026-06-07 0.072091 1.013231 5.163805 17.891070 47.868973 105.799050 214.573523
2026-06-14 0.059413 0.960507 5.164092 18.434254 50.247853 112.440086 230.196492
2026-06-21 0.046376 0.886333 5.065977 18.700317 52.036413 118.043016 244.174104
2026-06-28 0.036580 0.825857 5.002577 19.051501 54.031127 124.107804 259.141579